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Prediction for CME (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-01T13:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21824/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2, partial halo W in SOHO LASCO C3. Overtakes previous narrow CME in coronagraph imagery. May be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 (N16W21), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-10-01T12:04Z. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: We can have a potential CME arrival at 2022-10-04T07:05Z. As you can see, we do have a smooth-like rotation in the Z-component of magnetic field. Also, in the same period, the ion density and temperature seem to decrease from higher levels. A potential end of this CME (flux rope) could be 2022-10-05T02:46Z. After this, you can see the components are too fluctuating (or noisy).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T07:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T03:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-10-01T16:43Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 850
Longitude (deg): 45W
Latitude (deg): 3N
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 48.75 hour(s)
Difference: 4.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-10-02T06:20Z

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